India’s economic growth projection for 2021-2022 at 9.1%: survey

The FICCI survey elicited responses from economists in industry, banking and financial services.

New Delhi: India’s economy is expected to grow 9.1% in fiscal year 2021-22 (FY22), according to industry body FICCI’s latest economic outlook survey reported on Thursday. The gross domestic product (GDP) projection marks a marginal improvement over the 9% growth forecast recorded in its previous survey in July.

“The economic recovery, after the second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic, appears to be holding up and so does the incoming data on various high-frequency indicators. The next holiday season should support this momentum,” the Federation of Indians said chambers of commerce and industry.

However, he added a note of caution for the Diwali celebrations and urged bringing “a certain sense of complacency with the Covid situation” because “the likely increase in movement of people may again lead to an increase in new cases of coronavirus “.

According to the FICCI survey, the median growth forecast for agriculture and related activities was set at 3.2% for fiscal year 22. The industry and services sector is expected to grow by 12.9% and 8.6% respectively during the year, the chamber said.

This survey was conducted in September and gathered responses from economists in industry, banking and financial services.

Asked about the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) upcoming monetary policy review, a majority of economists believed the central bank would maintain the status quo on the repo rate and maintain an accommodative stance. They widely felt that the RBI could indicate a change in stance from accommodating to neutral at the February 2022 policy meeting and that a hike in the repo rate could take place in the next fiscal year.

The current repo rate – the rate at which the RBI lends money to the commercial bank – is 4%.

“The GDP data for the second quarter and the upcoming holiday season should give a clearer picture of where we are heading on the road to recovery and how the demand situation is. we will also have greater clarity on the covid situation and the possibility “

The Indian economy grew 20.1% in the first quarter (Q1), ended June 30 (FY22), compared to a contraction of 24.4% in Q1 FY21. And, second quarter GDP data (Q2 FY22) is expected to be released on November 30.

The survey’s median forecast for the (retail) inflation rate based on the CPI was 5.6% for 2021-2022.

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