Government assumes lower GDP growth for 2023 – The First News

Registered unemployment in Poland is expected to continue falling and reach 5.1% at the end of this year and remain unchanged in 2023.
Beate Schleep/PAP

Poland’s economic growth will weaken to 3.2% in 2023 from an expected 3.8% this year, while inflation will rise from 9.1% this year to 7.8% in 2023, the government has assumed. in the budget guidelines.

“The short-term outlook for the Polish economy is very uncertain due to the geopolitical situation (Russia’s aggression against Ukraine), turbulence in global production chains (China’s return to political lockdown), high commodity prices and the economic situation of (Poland – PAP) main partners,” the government’s press service, CIR, said in a statement on Tuesday.

“As a result, we expect that, despite positive economic performance in the first months of 2022, GDP growth will reach 3.8% over the whole of 2022 and 3.2% in 2023,” the CIR continued.

“We also expect inflation to average 9.1% in 2022 and decline to 7.8% in 2023,” the CIR said, while issuing a caveat that the numbers could change “depending on geopolitical situation”.

Prices are expected to show signs of slowing by the third and fourth quarters of 2022 due to tighter monetary policy and an expected stabilization in energy prices, according to the government.

Registered unemployment in Poland is expected to continue falling and reach 5.1% at the end of this year and remain unchanged in 2023.

Average wage growth will reach 10.2% this year and 9.6% next year. The government has planned salary increases in 2023 for the public sector of 7.8%.

Private consumption is expected to grow by 5.9% in real terms in 2022.

According to Finance Minister Magdalena Rzeczkowska, the guidelines can still be changed when data for the first two quarters of 2022 becomes available.

The government has until September 30 to submit the final budget bill to the lower house of parliament.

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