Democrats escalate conflicts with Latino voters | News

In the 2020 presidential race, an election ad that Democrats took Latino voters for granted was the hook of one of former President Donald Trump’s most popular ads.

Starring UFC fighter Jorge Masvidal, the nearly two-minute video showed then-candidate Joe Biden at a Hispanic Heritage Month event a month earlier playing “Despacito” on his cell phone. “To flatter us,” said Masvidal, a Miami native of Cuban and Peruvian descent. “Surely not.”

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“Democrats just think they have a Latino vote,” Masvidal said at the start. “They think we just have to hand it over to them. That’s right. We sure don’t.” the a d has collected over 34 million views online.

That year, Latino voters went to the polls in Florida, helping Trump to surpass his 2016 margins.

But it’s not just Florida where Democrats have lost control over Hispanic voters. A To analyse by Catalist, a political data trust for Democratic candidates, found that Latino voters swung 8 points nationally in favor of Trump compared to 2016 in the bipartisan vote. The number of votes cast by Latinos jumped 31% from 2016 to 2020. After four years, Trump left office more popular with Hispanic voters.

Masvidal’s message that Democrats take Hispanic voters for granted is not going to go away. In a survey This year, by Equis Research, a company specializing in researching the Latin American electorate, key majorities in 11 battlefield states endorsed the statement that “Democrats take Hispanics for granted.” They want our votes but forget about us when it comes time to deliver. “

Fifty-four percent of all registered voters found the statement convincing, while 57% of middle-class voters agreed. He resonated the most with voters for whom immigration was a top priority, at 69%.

The poll was conducted in August with a sample of 1,800 registered voters.

In Virginia, where Latino voters make up nearly a tenth of the state’s population and are the state’s fastest growing ethnic group, AP-NORC VoteCast exit from the ballot box after the November gubernatorial race showed how Gov.-elect Glenn Youngkin, a Republican, made inroads with Latino voters in the state against Democrat and former governor Terry McAuliffe, scoring a 12-point lead of percentage. A year earlier, exit polls showed Trump’s share of the Latin American vote from 2016 to 2020 had increased by six points.

Surveys, including one depth study of the latest presidential run by Equis Research, showed Democrats were losing ground, especially with less partisan Latinos, who said they were focusing on the economy and moving beyond COVID-19.

So far, President Joe Biden has failed to stem the bleeding. While he easily won Hispanic voters in 2020, with 63% of the vote, polls taken in recent months show support for the president crater in quarantine, at 43%, with a net disapproval rate of 46%.

And in a hypothetical showdown against Trump in 2024, Latino voters were evenly split, with 44% supporting Biden and 43% supporting Trump, according to a new one. the Wall Street newspaper survey.

Long regarded as a reliable left-wing electoral bloc, Hispanic voters are not “the emerging Democratic majority” Democrats once hoped. Ruy Teixeira, who along with John Judis coined the term in 2002, wrote this month that the party failed to take into account the scale of the change underway, warning that the prospect of political parity among Hispanic voters would undermine the most salient case of the formation of a coalition of Democrats .

Others agree.

“They can expect a good old-fashioned beating if they don’t get along and recognize that Hispanic tendencies in other states will mimic those of Hispanics in Florida,” said Sasha Tirador, Democratic consultant in the State, where more than a sixth of registered voters are Latinos.

Puzzled at the challenge of speaking to a diverse Hispanic electorate, which includes conservative voters in South Florida, Tirador said Democrats were giving way to Republicans by delisting the state.

“These are not ‘Latinos’ from California, these are ‘Hispanics’ from Florida,” she said. In other words, the messages that resonate with recent immigrants to the United States from Mexico or countries in the northern triangle may not resonate in a Cuban-American enclave of Miami. “Big difference,” she said.

Former Hialeah mayor Julio Gonzalez, a Republican and Trump deputy, said criticism of Biden’s long record in government with little to show resonated with his former constituents.

“We have a lot of good Democrats. We have a lot of good Republicans, but they don’t trust Joe Biden,” Gonzalez told the Washington Examiner. He also said he hoped to see Florida Governor Ron DeSantis lead a Republican ticket in 2024.

Democrats are already bracing for losses in Congress next year, with the support of Latino voters unlikely to give a boost. If the 2022 midterm elections were held today, 37% of Hispanic voters said they would support the Republican candidate in Congress, while 37% said they would favor the Democrat, according to the the Wall Street newspaper survey. Twenty-two percent were undecided. In contrast, Latino voters last year gave members of the Democratic House 60 percent of their vote.

Tirador believes some senior officials are waiting for the demographics to change and, in the meantime, “have pushed Florida out completely and focused on other states.”

She added: “Democrats are counting on the fact that eventually the strong vote of the American Cuban American conservatives will one day no longer be a problem as they will start to pass.

But young Hispanic voters are not shying away from concerns about socialism. Instead, this group is moving in the opposite direction, expressing growing concern with each successive generation, polls show. led by Equis Research. In a report released this month, 45% of immigrants said they were more concerned about socialism than fascism, compared with 49% of immigrant children, 54% of immigrant grandchildren and 59% of members of the fourth generation.

The report says that among Hispanic voters who support the Democratic Party, around 35% fear socialism more than fascism, with sentiment not necessarily tied to the experiences of previous generations with Latin American socialist regimes.

the latino switch to Trump in 2020 included not only Florida and Texas, but also Wisconsin, Nevada, double-digit Pennsylvania and Arizona, and Georgia just below, all states where Democrats face competitive races next year.

An analysis of the Hispanic shift to Trump in New York City by Matthew Thomas showed the shift to be true in the trusted Blue enclaves as well. In Queens, Trump had the best results of a Republican in 16 years old.

“Constituencies where at least 50% of residents are Hispanic swung to Trump by 18 points, with a quarter of voters… supporting him for re-election,” Thomas wrote. “The change was even more pronounced in ridings where at least 75% of residents are Hispanic, which had a 25-point swing towards Trump.”

Biden faces an uphill battle if his party hopes to influence these voters.

In a post-election survey by the Democracy Fund Voter Study Group, more than 70% of Hispanic voters said jobs, the economy and the coronavirus were “very important” issues. Over 60% said the same for crime and education.

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Recent polls show the president is struggling with voters on these issues.

Latinos said they had a negative view of the economy, with 63% believing it was going in the wrong direction, compared with 25% who viewed the economy in favor, a gap of 38 percentage points, according to the the Wall Street Journal recent survey. They viewed Republicans as the best prepared to deal with economic problems, including inflation, and contain the federal deficit. Border security concerns have also favored opponents of Biden amid an increase in illegal migration in the southern states of the United States.

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