Economic Growth – Avance Economico http://avanceeconomico.com/ Thu, 30 Jun 2022 20:43:53 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=5.9.3 https://avanceeconomico.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/icon-7.png Economic Growth – Avance Economico http://avanceeconomico.com/ 32 32 Rising inflation weakens Scottish economic growth outlook in 2023 https://avanceeconomico.com/rising-inflation-weakens-scottish-economic-growth-outlook-in-2023/ Thu, 30 Jun 2022 19:27:26 +0000 https://avanceeconomico.com/rising-inflation-weakens-scottish-economic-growth-outlook-in-2023/ According to the Fraser of Allander Institute (FAI) at the University of Strathclyde, SCOTLAND’s economic growth forecast for 2023 has been revised down due to the impacts of cost increases on consumers and businesses, and the likelihood that they will persist longer than previously thought. . In the Deloitte-sponsored economic commentary, the FAI predicts growth […]]]>

According to the Fraser of Allander Institute (FAI) at the University of Strathclyde, SCOTLAND’s economic growth forecast for 2023 has been revised down due to the impacts of cost increases on consumers and businesses, and the likelihood that they will persist longer than previously thought. .

In the Deloitte-sponsored economic commentary, the FAI predicts growth of 3.8% in 2022 and 0.5% in 2023, significantly worse prospects than previously estimated, with more than half of consumers spending less on non-essentials, and another third spending less on food and other essentials, as rental and ownership costs also increase significantly.

FAI Director Professor Mairi Spowage said: “The data shows that the recovery of the Scottish economy from the pandemic is starting to falter, that inflation will be high and persistent, potentially limiting the economic recovery we had hoped for. see, as consumers cut spending and businesses. limit production due to input costs.

Angela Mitchell, senior partner at Deloitte in Scotland, said: “While Scotland’s economic recovery was well underway in the first quarter of 2022, challenges for businesses are expected to persist throughout this year due to cost pressures. of life driven by rising inflation and interest rates.

“Lower demand, higher costs and uncertainty are holding back investment and growth for companies that will need to prioritize technology, innovation, digital transformation and the experiences they have built over the years. the pandemic, to help them weather the vagaries of the economic cycle.”

The commentary also analyzes the outlook for Scottish public finances to 2027 and David Eiser, the institute’s deputy director, said: ‘The government deserves some credit for presenting its plans despite significant uncertainty in its budget and the tough reality of its spending decisions. .

“The overall government budget will hardly increase at all due to the UK government’s budget plans and their implications for the block grant.

“Having made funding commitments for social security and health, this means cuts to funding for local government, police and justice, higher education and business support.”

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Economic recovery poised to gain momentum https://avanceeconomico.com/economic-recovery-poised-to-gain-momentum/ Mon, 27 Jun 2022 23:55:00 +0000 https://avanceeconomico.com/economic-recovery-poised-to-gain-momentum/ A worker works on the production line of a textile company in Nanmo township in Hai’an city, east China’s Jiangsu province, Feb. 28, 2022. [Photo/Xinhua] China’s economic recovery is expected to accelerate in the second half of the year after growth stabilized in May, and the country is expected to keep full-year growth within a […]]]>

A worker works on the production line of a textile company in Nanmo township in Hai’an city, east China’s Jiangsu province, Feb. 28, 2022. [Photo/Xinhua]

China’s economic recovery is expected to accelerate in the second half of the year after growth stabilized in May, and the country is expected to keep full-year growth within a reasonable range with more targeted policies and effective, say economists and analysts.

Despite weakening economic activity since March due to a resurgence in domestic COVID-19 cases and changes in the international environment, China is expected to record positive growth in the second quarter and the economy will rebound in the following months with a stimulus package fully taking effect.

Profits by Chinese industrial companies contracted at a slower pace in May as the COVID-19 outbreaks eased and work and production gradually resumed, improving from their peak. decline in April since March 2020, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics on Monday.

SNB data showed China’s industrial profits fell 6.5% year-on-year in May, compared with the 8.5% decline reported in April. For the January-May period, industrial company profits rose 1 percent year-on-year, compared with a 3.5 percent rise in the first four months of 2022, the NBS said.

Zhu Hong, senior statistician at the BNS, said the improvement in industrial profits was due to the government’s effective measures to contain COVID, resume work and production, and ensure smooth logistics.

Meanwhile, Zhu warned that industrial enterprises still face pressure from rising costs and difficulties in production and operation, and called for more efforts to implement existing policies aimed at stabilize the industrial economy and help companies to overcome their difficulties.

Yin Yue, an analyst at Shanghai-listed Hongta Securities, pointed to the substantial improvement in industrial profits in regions that were badly hit by the pandemic, saying some major economic indicators are expected to return to pre-pandemic levels due from the impact of COVID-19 eases further in the following months.

According to the NBS, the profit contraction of industrial enterprises in Shanghai and the provinces of Jiangsu, Jilin and Liaoning narrowed by more than 20 percentage points from the previous month.

A series of economic indicators improved in May thanks to stronger political support and better control of the pandemic, showing new signs of recovery.

Citing recent data from the SNB, Tommy Wu, senior economist at think tank Oxford Economics, said industrial value-added production and capital investment improved in May after contracting in April, the impact of the COVID-19 having subsided in most parts of China.

“We expect growth to pick up more meaningfully in June after stabilizing in May,” Wu said. “We expect supply chains to normalize in the third quarter, while stimulus measures will play a crucial role in boosting domestic demand in the second half of the year.”

Wu said he expects to see a stimulus-driven recovery in the second half of the year, fueled in particular by infrastructure investment.

“Policymakers have rolled out numerous stimulus measures, including those in the government work report and a new round of 33 measures in May. We expect infrastructure investment to do the heavy lifting to support growth in the second half,” he said. “We still expect a rate cut in the third quarter, as broad-based monetary easing via a rate cut could be effective in boosting growth.”

Zhu Jianfang, chief economist at CITIC Securities, spoke highly of the 33 policy measures taken recently by the government to stabilize the overall economy, saying China’s economy will rebound especially in the second half of the year with such strong policy support.

Despite multiple short-term pressures, Zhu said China will remain the biggest contributor to global economic growth given its potential growth rate of over 5% during the 14th Five-Year Plan period (2021-25 ), an abundant supply of labour. and the country’s key roles in global trade and industrial chains.

Due to stronger policy support to stabilize growth, Zhu said his team expects China’s GDP to grow slightly in the second quarter.

“China is expected to see its GDP grow by around 6% in the third and fourth quarters, and full-year GDP could approach 5% in 2022,” Zhu said in a recent economic outlook report. of China for the second half of this year. .

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“Economic growth relies on population decline” – Journal https://avanceeconomico.com/economic-growth-relies-on-population-decline-journal/ Sun, 26 Jun 2022 02:45:34 +0000 https://avanceeconomico.com/economic-growth-relies-on-population-decline-journal/ ISLAMABAD: Population Council Project Director Samia Ali Shah said on Saturday that Pakistan could achieve economic and social development with a sustained decline in population growth. Addressing a press conference, she said, “Our development prospects will remain elusive until we simultaneously focus on education; health care, including family planning; and women’s participation in the labor […]]]>

ISLAMABAD: Population Council Project Director Samia Ali Shah said on Saturday that Pakistan could achieve economic and social development with a sustained decline in population growth.

Addressing a press conference, she said, “Our development prospects will remain elusive until we simultaneously focus on education; health care, including family planning; and women’s participation in the labor market. She said South Korea and Thailand halved their infant mortality rates in 13 to 18 years after 1960, while it took Pakistan 27 years to do so.

Compared to the “Asian Tigers” who have reached nearly 95% literacy, one third of Pakistan’s population aged 15 and above remains illiterate. Female labor force participation currently stands above 50% in all Asian Tiger countries, while in Pakistan it remains at 25%.

Ms. Samia spoke to the media about the economic and human development successes of Asian countries and drew media attention to the role of increased funding in improving family planning and population programs in the country.

Speaking to the media, Population Council Project Director Samia Ali Shah said Pakistan can achieve economic and social development with a sustained decline in population growth.

She said: “Smaller families offer greater opportunities to save more, contribute to national savings, and improve health and other development indicators for women and children. The role of the media is central in bringing the government’s attention to these issues of national importance,” she said.

The Population Council has shared evidence to inform the media on how reducing fertility contributes to economic growth by reducing the size of the economically less productive dependent population of young people under 15, freeing up government resources which would have been necessary to meet the permanent expansion of the needs for educational and health infrastructures.

Senior Programs Director, Population Council, Dr Ali Mir, insisted on maintaining a balance between population size and natural resources, as Pakistan is already one of the top three most stressed countries. the world’s water supply and its agricultural lands have been rapidly depleted, making it a food-importing country.

Participants discussed the economic and environmental impact of rapid and uncontrolled population growth and exchanged ideas on mainstreaming the population debate among policymakers, academics and the public through the media.

The media has corroborated how national security of Pakistan is intertwined with human security and human development is not possible without facing a high population growth rate.

Posted in Dawn, June 26, 2022

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India: India’s challenge is to maintain economic growth in a geopolitical context: report https://avanceeconomico.com/india-indias-challenge-is-to-maintain-economic-growth-in-a-geopolitical-context-report/ Fri, 24 Jun 2022 04:39:00 +0000 https://avanceeconomico.com/india-indias-challenge-is-to-maintain-economic-growth-in-a-geopolitical-context-report/ In the decade preceding the global pandemic, the Indian economy witnessed a favorable global climate for growth. This period has seen two key developments: weak global commodity prices and the doubling of the inflow of foreign direct investment into India to over $50 billion in 2019. Since the pandemic, and now the war in Ukraine, […]]]>
In the decade preceding the global pandemic, the Indian economy witnessed a favorable global climate for growth. This period has seen two key developments: weak global commodity prices and the doubling of the inflow of foreign direct investment into India to over $50 billion in 2019. Since the pandemic, and now the war in Ukraine, vulnerabilities in the interconnected global economic system have created insecurity in India. the flow of goods, people and ideas and has increasingly shielded governments from external threats to “economic security”.

For a developing country like India, economic security refers to its ability to pursue its own development goals, regardless of threats, internal or external, or coercion. Economic security is an essential pillar of national security. A report by India’s leading think tank Gateway House has released a report explaining the different pillars of economic security and measures to strengthen it.

The Indian government has pursued this in several ways, including seeking partners to help India’s economic growth – the US, Japan, EU and China. However, the past two years have raised several new challenges, complicating this process, the report points out.

The Covid-19 pandemic has hit global supply chains and caused severe economic hardship. India has a military confrontation on its borders with China, which seriously complicates this relationship. Among India’s immediate neighbours, Pakistan and Sri Lanka offer stark examples of poor economic policies leading to internal unrest – a reminder of the need for strong and uninterrupted growth in a country with a poverty rate of 10% and a very ambitious population. Finally, the conflict in Ukraine is leading to a global commodity price shock – for food, fertilizers, energy and raw materials, the report notes.

Covid and Ukraine have shown the importance of diversification – be it supply chains for manufacturing, energy imports, raw material supplies, technology or capital. However, this comes at a cost. For example, investing in an oilfield in South America can help reduce India’s vulnerability to high oil prices, but it also requires capital and other resources like management bandwidth and technical capabilities. to do it. Investing in natural gas and fertilizer manufacturing costs more than buying fertilizer directly on the world market – and there are times when markets fail.

The last two years have brought multiple such failures and consequent economic difficulties. The report with a series of articles examines six important dimensions of economic security in India, the challenges they present and the mitigating measures needed to address them.

This study was supported by the New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization (NEDO), Japan, through its representative office in New Delhi.

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Carter County Times | Improvements totaling $212,500 for MMRC Morehead Regional Industrial Park substation for future economic growth https://avanceeconomico.com/carter-county-times-improvements-totaling-212500-for-mmrc-morehead-regional-industrial-park-substation-for-future-economic-growth/ Wed, 22 Jun 2022 10:00:00 +0000 https://avanceeconomico.com/carter-county-times-improvements-totaling-212500-for-mmrc-morehead-regional-industrial-park-substation-for-future-economic-growth/ FRANKFORT – On June 15, Governor Andy Beshear announced a new investment in Kentucky’s economic future as local leaders in Rowan County implement $425,000 in improvements to the MMRC Regional Industrial Park with the support of a state grant of $212,500 and a local game from the MMRC Regional Industrial Development Authority. “We are committed […]]]>

FRANKFORT – On June 15, Governor Andy Beshear announced a new investment in Kentucky’s economic future as local leaders in Rowan County implement $425,000 in improvements to the MMRC Regional Industrial Park with the support of a state grant of $212,500 and a local game from the MMRC Regional Industrial Development Authority.

“We are committed to ensuring that every community in Kentucky is able to succeed, which means we will continue to invest in the sites and buildings that will support the Commonwealth economy and workforce in the future. future,” Governor Beshear said. “Kentucky is home to many industrial sites poised to attract and support any business looking to grow quickly and efficiently and this project will augment those efforts. I would like to commend the local leaders of Morehead and Rowan County for their commitment to the Commonwealth and look forward to seeing the success of this site in the future.

The project will see the construction of a new 150,000 square foot platform which will include significant site works improvements for grade, drainage and infrastructure extensions. The platform will sit on over 22 acres of land and be located at 1099 Industry Drive in Morehead. Construction of the platform is expected to be completed by the end of July 2022, and any business looking to locate or expand in the area that meets park guidelines will be considered for the site.

Rowan County Executive Judge Harry Clark is encouraged by the jobs and future economic success the project will bring to Rowan County.

“We are grateful for the PDI project and the receipt of this funding to enable investment in infrastructure and land projects to further support economic development in Rowan County and the MMRC Regional Industrial Park,” said the Judge Clark. “Developing ready-to-use land is an investment in jobs and our future.”

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Algeria invests in its youth to boost human development and economic growth https://avanceeconomico.com/algeria-invests-in-its-youth-to-boost-human-development-and-economic-growth/ Mon, 20 Jun 2022 16:02:51 +0000 https://avanceeconomico.com/algeria-invests-in-its-youth-to-boost-human-development-and-economic-growth/ Before its independence 60 years ago, Algeria had only a few hundred students at the Central University of Algiers. The institution was the only one in the country and it was French. Today, in its dozens of universities and research centers, Algeria has more than one and a half million students and many new challenges […]]]>

Before its independence 60 years ago, Algeria had only a few hundred students at the Central University of Algiers. The institution was the only one in the country and it was French. Today, in its dozens of universities and research centers, Algeria has more than one and a half million students and many new challenges to meet.

Eradicate illiteracy

One of the authorities’ priorities after the country’s independence was to eradicate the then massive illiteracy, estimated at 85% of the population in 1962. To do this, they extended free and compulsory education in order to bring the Literacy rate at more than 81%. Among 15-25 year olds, it is now close to 100%.

Another priority has been to enable Algerians to take charge of the country’s economic development. In 1974, the architect Oscar Niemeyer designed the University of Sciences and Techniques Houari Boumediène in Algiers. More than a hundred thousand of its graduates work today in Algeria and around the world, to the pride of the rector.

“At the time, when the university opened, there were 2,000 students, said Djamal-Eddine Akretche, Addid “Its vocation has long been to train future managers. Now there are 50,000 students “.

The rector of the University of Sciences and Techniques Houari-Boumediene (USTHB) also admits that at the time, there were very few women studying there. “Today, almost 60% of the student body is female (….) But I remember that in the 1970s and 1980s, in technological and fundamental sciences, it did not exceed 10%”.

Tell young people to be “creators of wealth”

“We talk a lot about entrepreneurship, start-ups, incubators… Our university has integrated these ideas, we started with a lot of interaction with the socio-economic sector and we also challenge the mentalities of our students in telling them ‘you must be wealth creators and not job seekers‘”Said Akretche.

This idea has spread throughout the University’s 73 research laboratories. And Rym, a pharmacology student, does not hide her ambitions. “With this training, maybe one day I could run my own business, maybe invent my own cream, that everyone would buy… that’s my goal!”

A professional Masters has been launched in partnership with national companies, with Algeria aiming to be a regional leader in the production of medicines. “We manage to cover up to 70% of the needs of the Algerian population in generic drugs, explains Kamel Daoud, chemistry teacher at USTHBn, adding that they plan to export part of it “to East Africa. or West”.

Entrepreneurship

The entrepreneurial spirit is increasingly present among Algerian students. This is particularly true here, at the Algerian Haute Ecole de Commerce. At 20, in first year, Rania created the school business club with her classmate Aymen. Both students dream of running their own business.

“I’m considering working for one of the Big Four companies. I want to set up an industrial company and I am oriented towards sub-Saharan countries,” says Aymen. And her friend, Rania admits that she would like to settle in her country.

Founded in 2004, this school is the result of a Franco-Algerian cooperation, it is now one of the 10 best business schools in Africa. It has always been open to opportunities and relations with foreign countries and many of its students pursue their studies outside Algeria.

One of the challenges of human development in Algeria will indeed be to offer as many students as possible the possibility of growing up in their country.

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Global economic outlook darkens as ‘once in a lifetime’ shocks take their toll https://avanceeconomico.com/global-economic-outlook-darkens-as-once-in-a-lifetime-shocks-take-their-toll/ Sat, 18 Jun 2022 18:41:53 +0000 https://avanceeconomico.com/global-economic-outlook-darkens-as-once-in-a-lifetime-shocks-take-their-toll/ The United States is better positioned to weather the downturn than most other countries, experts said, due to its economic strength coming this year and its ability to produce nearly all the food and energy it needs. need. But decades of globalization have bound the world so tightly that no nation is immune to the […]]]>

The United States is better positioned to weather the downturn than most other countries, experts said, due to its economic strength coming this year and its ability to produce nearly all the food and energy it needs. need. But decades of globalization have bound the world so tightly that no nation is immune to the effects of crises erupting on any continent, and the effects have spilled over to our shores.

Americans are being criticized by sky-high gasoline prices dictated by global markets that have been rocked by sweeping sanctions imposed on Russia, the world’s third-largest oil producer, after it invaded Ukraine. Food prices, already high by higher transport costs, rose further because the war raised fears of grain shortages. And further global economic turmoil has pushed the value of the dollar higher as businesses and investors seek financial security, a development that is hurting U.S. exports by making them more expensive overseas.

“The problems we are seeing overseas are affecting the US economy on a scale that has never happened before,” said Bernard Baumohl, chief global economist at the Economic Outlook Group, a forecasting firm. “A lot of them are ‘once in a lifetime’ types of shocks that all happened around the same time.”

In a sobering report this month, the World Bank cut its global economic growth forecast for 2022 to 2.9%. That’s about half last year’s growth rate, which was the strongest since 1973, as the world recovered from the short, severe recession triggered by the first pandemic shutdowns. The new slowdown was spurred by the war in Ukraine, mounting COVID lockdowns in China and continued supply chain disruptions that are “hammering growth”, World Bank President David Malpass said.

“For many countries, recession will be hard to avoid,” he warned when the bank’s latest report on the global economic outlook was released on June 7.

The United States is one of those countries. The World Bank has lowered its forecast for economic growth here to 2.5% this year. But conditions are changing so rapidly — the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on June 10 that the annual inflation rate in the United States has surprisingly soared to 8.6% — that those numbers already seem outdated.

Federal Reserve officials on Wednesday lowered their forecast for U.S. economic growth this year to 1.7% from 2.8% in March, as they enacted their biggest interest rate hike in nearly 20 years. to slow growth in order to reduce rising inflation. at the fastest annual rate rate in 40 years.

This pace of economic growth, and a similar Fed forecast of 1.7% for 2023, is above the level of a recession, which is generally defined as at least six consecutive months of contraction. But the Fed’s rate hike and its promise of more to come this year and next has led Bloomberg Economics to forecast a 72% chance of a U.S. recession by early 2024.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell told reporters on Wednesday he still expects the central bank to slow the economy enough to reduce inflation without plunging the country into recession, but acknowledged that the task was becoming more difficult due to international factors. “There is a way to get there,” he said. “It doesn’t get any easier. It becomes more difficult because of these external forces.

President Biden, who has limited options to cut gasoline prices, said Thursday that a U.S. recession was “not inevitable.” But he blamed record gas prices on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which sent already high prices soaring this year.

“I made it clear that helping Ukraine and organizing NATO to help Ukraine is going to be expensive,” Biden told The Associated Press. “There would be a price to pay for that.”

Even if the United States avoids a recession, it could face a period of stagnant growth and high inflation – a debilitating combination called stagflation – as it did during the dark economic decade of the 1970s.

“Inflation has become a really big issue now, and the inflationary pressures at this point seem unrelenting,” Brian Coulton, chief economist at ratings firm Fitch Ratings, said in a webinar Thursday after releasing a report. which also lowered its global economic forecast this year. at 2.9 percent.

But even as U.S. consumers are hurt by gasoline prices, which AAA said hit an average national record close to $5.02 a gallon on Tuesday, the broader economic effect is somewhat offset by the increased revenue the United States derives from its large oil production, Joseph said. E. Gagnon, Senior Researcher at the Peterson Institute for International Economics Think Tank.

“There are winners and losers in these big changes in oil and energy commodity prices,” he said. “We all have losers in our countries, consumers who buy these things and it’s hard and they will have to reduce their other expenses. But we have more winners in America than they have in Japan or Europe, like the oil producers.

Other nations are not so lucky.

“Many countries are in a precarious situation,” said Monika Tothova, an economist at the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. “Over the past year, we have seen a new surge in world hunger.”

About 193 million people in 53 countries and territories around the world were already experiencing “acute food insecurity” in 2021, an increase of 40 million from the previous year, according to a May report by the United Nations World Food Programme. The war in Ukraine, a major wheat producer, has exacerbated the problem.

Russia blocked the export of wheat from Ukrainian ports, pushing the average cost of a bushel of wheat up 56% in May from a year earlier, said Eric Munoz, senior policy adviser for agriculture at Oxfam. America, a global organization fighting against poverty and poverty. injustice. This is why the problem of access to food has spread beyond poor countries to middle-income countries like Egypt, which depend on imports of wheat from Ukraine and Russia and have had to scramble to find increasingly expensive substitutes. Rising interest rates make it harder for these countries to borrow money to offset higher food costs.

A new hunger report released this month by the two UN agencies has warned that up to 49 million people in 46 countries could be at risk of falling into famine or near-famine conditions. This included 750,000 people in what the report calls “catastrophic conditions”, in Ethiopia, Afghanistan, Nigeria, Somalia, South Sudan and Yemen.

“Ukraine was, in many ways, at least for food prices, the straw that broke the camel’s back,” Munoz said.

Biden said last week that the United States was working on ways to get grain out of Ukraine by rail. And a $40 billion aid package for Ukraine he signed last month included $5 billion in global food aid. But faced with potential food shortages at home, some countries like India have banned exports of wheat or other commodities.

“We see countries taking it upon themselves to restrict or ban food exports from their country because they want to make sure they have enough domestic supplies. It also puts upward pressure on food prices,” said Baumohl, the economist.

This all adds up to great uncertainty that is holding back economic growth, he said.

“Globalization has many advantages,” Baumohl said. “But when suddenly the world experiences a series of truly historic, unique and exogenous shocks, then we find out how vulnerable all countries are because they are so intertwined.”


Jim Puzzanghera can be contacted at jim.puzzanghera@globe.com. Follow him on Twitter: @JimPuzzanghera.

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RBI focused on inflation once growth and economic activity were at pre-pandemic levels, says guv Das https://avanceeconomico.com/rbi-focused-on-inflation-once-growth-and-economic-activity-were-at-pre-pandemic-levels-says-guv-das/ Fri, 17 Jun 2022 07:50:40 +0000 https://avanceeconomico.com/rbi-focused-on-inflation-once-growth-and-economic-activity-were-at-pre-pandemic-levels-says-guv-das/ The Reserve Bank of India acted proactively to deal with the shock of the Covid pandemic, the Ukraine-Russia war, and took calibrated measures to ensure that the shock was absorbed without destabilizing growth, said the Governor Shaktikanta Das during the FE Modern BFSI summit. During the pandemic, the RBI MPC consciously decided to tolerate inflation […]]]>

The Reserve Bank of India acted proactively to deal with the shock of the Covid pandemic, the Ukraine-Russia war, and took calibrated measures to ensure that the shock was absorbed without destabilizing growth, said the Governor Shaktikanta Das during the FE Modern BFSI summit. During the pandemic, the RBI MPC consciously decided to tolerate inflation above 4%, up to 6% as the situation demanded it. “If we had started raising rates earlier, what would that have done to growth in 2021-22? Would that have prevented inflation from skyrocketing? No,” Das said. “We waited for economic growth to reach a stage where it was safe to withdraw cash,” he said.

Responding to a question whether RBI would now raise the interest rate to the pre-pandemic level of 5.1%, Shaktikanta Das said that RBI is in step with the needs of the economy. He mentioned that during the onslaught of the pandemic when the first nationwide lockdown was announced, RBI’s aim was to spur growth and ensure that financial markets function as usual. Meanwhile, even when inflation broke above the 6% mark, RBI looked beyond it as it considered the spike in inflation to be transitory at that time. However, just recently, he started to consider persistent inflation and therefore opted for the withdrawal of cash. Now that growth, economic activities have returned to pre-pandemic levels, inflation has become the priority.

Responding to concerns over liquidity injections by the RBI, Das pointed out that all liquidity injections announced by the RBI come with a sunset provision of an end date to ensure that none of the measures remain unfulfilled. indefinite period. However, in the face of liquidity that entered the system due to multiple waves of covid, the start of the war in Europe was a challenge and VRRR, SDF managed to do so. Das assured that out of the 12 lakh crore injected by the RBI during the pandemic, 5 to 5.5 lakh crore has already returned, while the remaining 7 lakh crore is still there. “We’re confident we’ll get out of this quickly and have a soft landing,” he said.

When asked if RBI was considering borrower-centric regulation, Das said that in the case of NBFCs, the regulator had already introduced ladder-based regulation. Also, in the case of MFIs, they have recently introduced activity-based regulations that are neutral between entities. For a microfinance loan, the regulations are now uniform. Thus, the lender has already moved in a direction where regulation will benefit microfinance borrowers. RBI will refine its regulations to address all customer challenges and concerns, RBI guv said.

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Government assumes lower GDP growth for 2023 – The First News https://avanceeconomico.com/government-assumes-lower-gdp-growth-for-2023-the-first-news/ Tue, 14 Jun 2022 16:47:24 +0000 https://avanceeconomico.com/government-assumes-lower-gdp-growth-for-2023-the-first-news/ Registered unemployment in Poland is expected to continue falling and reach 5.1% at the end of this year and remain unchanged in 2023. Beate Schleep/PAP Poland’s economic growth will weaken to 3.2% in 2023 from an expected 3.8% this year, while inflation will rise from 9.1% this year to 7.8% in 2023, the government has […]]]>

Registered unemployment in Poland is expected to continue falling and reach 5.1% at the end of this year and remain unchanged in 2023.
Beate Schleep/PAP

Poland’s economic growth will weaken to 3.2% in 2023 from an expected 3.8% this year, while inflation will rise from 9.1% this year to 7.8% in 2023, the government has assumed. in the budget guidelines.

“The short-term outlook for the Polish economy is very uncertain due to the geopolitical situation (Russia’s aggression against Ukraine), turbulence in global production chains (China’s return to political lockdown), high commodity prices and the economic situation of (Poland – PAP) main partners,” the government’s press service, CIR, said in a statement on Tuesday.

“As a result, we expect that, despite positive economic performance in the first months of 2022, GDP growth will reach 3.8% over the whole of 2022 and 3.2% in 2023,” the CIR continued.

“We also expect inflation to average 9.1% in 2022 and decline to 7.8% in 2023,” the CIR said, while issuing a caveat that the numbers could change “depending on geopolitical situation”.

Prices are expected to show signs of slowing by the third and fourth quarters of 2022 due to tighter monetary policy and an expected stabilization in energy prices, according to the government.

Registered unemployment in Poland is expected to continue falling and reach 5.1% at the end of this year and remain unchanged in 2023.

Average wage growth will reach 10.2% this year and 9.6% next year. The government has planned salary increases in 2023 for the public sector of 7.8%.

Private consumption is expected to grow by 5.9% in real terms in 2022.

According to Finance Minister Magdalena Rzeczkowska, the guidelines can still be changed when data for the first two quarters of 2022 becomes available.

The government has until September 30 to submit the final budget bill to the lower house of parliament.

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In the “miracle” city of Shenzhen, fears for China’s economic future https://avanceeconomico.com/in-the-miracle-city-of-shenzhen-fears-for-chinas-economic-future/ Sun, 12 Jun 2022 22:31:00 +0000 https://avanceeconomico.com/in-the-miracle-city-of-shenzhen-fears-for-chinas-economic-future/ SHENZHEN, China, June 13 (Reuters) – David Fong moved from a poor village in central China to the booming city of Shenzhen in 1997. Over the next 25 years, he worked for a succession of manufacturers strangers before building his own multimillion-dollar company making everything from schoolbags to toothbrushes. Now 47, he plans to expand […]]]>

SHENZHEN, China, June 13 (Reuters) – David Fong moved from a poor village in central China to the booming city of Shenzhen in 1997. Over the next 25 years, he worked for a succession of manufacturers strangers before building his own multimillion-dollar company making everything from schoolbags to toothbrushes.

Now 47, he plans to expand internationally by creating consumer devices connected to the Internet. But after two years of coronavirus shutdowns that have driven up the price of shipping and shaken consumer confidence, he worries about the survival of his business.

“I hope we get through the year,” Fong said, surrounded by talking bears, machinery parts and his company’s catalogs in his top-floor office overlooking the gleaming towers of a once-daily Shenzhen neighborhood. filled with sprawling factories. “It’s a tough time for a business.”

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Fong’s rags-to-riches story, now threatened by a wider downturn made worse by the coronavirus, mirrors that of his adopted hometown.

Established in 1979 during the first wave of Chinese economic reforms, which allowed private enterprise to play a role in the state-controlled system, Shenzhen has transformed from a collection of farming villages into a major port home to some of China’s advanced technologies. , financial, real estate and manufacturing companies.

Over the past four decades, the city has shown annual economic growth of at least 20%. As recently as October, forecasting firm Oxford Economics predicted that Shenzhen would be the fastest growing city in the world between 2020 and 2022.

But it has since lost that crown to San Jose in California’s Silicon Valley. Shenzhen posted overall economic growth of just 2% in the first quarter of this year, the lowest figure ever for the city except for the first quarter of 2020, when the first wave of coronavirus infections crippled the country.

Shenzhen remains China’s biggest exporter of goods, but its overseas shipments fell nearly 14% in March, hampered by a COVID lockdown that caused bottlenecks at its port.

The city has long been considered one of the best and fastest growing places for business in China and a triumph of the country’s economic reforms. President Xi Jinping called it a “miracle” city during his visit in 2019.

If Shenzhen is in trouble, it is a wake-up call for the world’s second-largest economy. The city is “the canary in the mine shaft”, said Richard Holt, director of global cities research at Oxford Economics, adding that his team was watching Shenzhen closely.

Fong, which sells its products mainly to domestic customers, said sales were down about 40% from 20 million yuan ($3 million) in 2020, impacted by the recent two-month lockdown in Shanghai. and a general decline in consumer confidence. China’s strict travel rules mean he was unable to travel to Europe to try to expand there.

LOSS OF ATTRACTIVENESS

Shenzhen, now a city of some 18 million people, was hit by a succession of blows from inside and outside the country.

Shenzhen-based telecoms equipment makers Huawei Technologies and ZTE Corp (000063.SZ) have been placed on US trade blacklists for alleged security issues and illegal shipment of US technology to Iran, respectively. Huawei denies wrongdoing, while ZTE left probation in March five years after pleading guilty.

Another of the city’s big companies, top-selling property developer China Evergrande, sparked fears of a meltdown last year due to its heavy debts that are believed to have wreaked havoc on China’s financial system. Later, Ping An Insurance Group Co, China’s largest insurer, suffered heavy losses on property-related investments.

Even the smallest businesses have suffered. Amazon.com Inc (AMZN.O) cracked down on the way sellers do business on the platform last year, affecting more than 50,000 e-commerce merchants, many of them based in the city, the agency said. Shenzhen Cross-border E-commerce Association.

On top of that, Shenzhen was shut down for a week in March to prevent the spread of the coronavirus. This lockdown, and those in other Chinese cities, has lowered domestic demand for products made in Shenzhen. The city’s 2% growth in the first quarter was less than half of China’s overall growth rate of 4.8%.

Business registrations also fell by almost a third during this period. City authorities are sticking to their 6% growth target for this year, set in April, but the slowdown has sparked alarm in the Chinese establishment.

“Shenzhen’s economy is shaky, leaning back and slow, while some doubt that Shenzhen has enough momentum,” Song Ding, director of state-linked think tank China Development Institute, wrote in an essay. of May.

The Shenzhen government did not respond to a request for comment for this story.

City officials privately admit that it is increasingly difficult to keep Shenzhen’s “miracle” alive.

“There are a lot of people who have an interest in Shenzhen that remains predictable, unlike before. You can’t just freely experiment and see what sticks anymore,” a city official told Reuters, speaking on condition of anonymity. .

On June 6, state news agency Xinhua reported that Shenzhen plans to build 20 advanced manufacturing industrial parks for telecommunications and high-tech companies that will cover 300 square kilometers (115 square miles). He did not provide further details.

‘IT’S TIME TO GO’

The cancellation of most international flights to China, a port plagued by closures and a once-bustling border with Hong Kong that is now nearly closed have made Shenzhen a difficult place to do business. China’s plans for a Greater Bay Area – merging Shenzhen with Hong Kong, Macau and several mainland cities – appear to have stalled.

“It’s losing its appeal, and they (authorities) need to realize that,” said Klaus Zenkel, president of the European Chamber of Commerce in South China. “We always say they have to balance restrictions and economic growth, to find a way to spend more money in the Greater Bay Area and these free trade zones.”

In September, the Chinese government announced it would expand the so-called Qianhai Economic Zone, a special zone within Shenzhen’s borders, to 121 square kilometers from 15 square kilometers. British banks Standard Chartered and HSBC have set up offices there, but closed borders mean the region is struggling to attract foreign businesses, said Zenkel and five diplomats from the region.

Foreign entrepreneurs who have flocked to Shenzhen to turn their creations into products no longer regularly visit its factories and the world’s largest electronics market in Huaqiangbei, forcing dozens of expat bars and restaurants to close or adapt. to local tastes.

International chambers of commerce have warned the Chinese government of an exodus of foreign talent. A diplomat from a major European consulate told Reuters he estimated the number of its nationals in southern China had fallen to 750 from 3,000 before the pandemic.

The slowdown has made it harder for graduates to find jobs in what has long been China’s youngest metropolis, where the average resident is 34 years old. The lush subtropical city that merged manufacturing, technology, and finance into an entrepreneurial hotbed sometimes referred to as China’s Silicon Valley, was a magnet for ambitious and talented graduates from across the country.

“I’ve done internships at companies where classmates a year or two older have found jobs, but it’s a lot harder to land a job than it was for them,” said Jade Yang, 22, who graduated with a degree in advertising in May and walked 1,400 kilometers. from central Chongqing to find work at a technology company in Shenzhen. She said she initially hoped for a salary of up to 10,000 yuan a month, but now thinks 6,000 yuan is more realistic.

In an apartment-dense area near High Tech Park, one of the city’s tech business hubs, real estate agents would normally be inundated with graduates looking to find accommodation in May. An agent, who only gave his name as Zhao, told Reuters last month that business was down 50% from a year ago.

“This place should be full of people, I shouldn’t have a moment’s rest,” he said, lying on his e-scooter in front of a 30-studio apartment building where the rent is 2,000 yuan a month. He said several had been empty since November.

Businesses in Shenzhen have always opened and closed with high turnover, but “for rent” signs are increasingly common in once-bustling malls, especially those near border crossings with Hong Kong, which are closed since early 2020.

The situation is grim for low-income migrant workers in Shenzhen, who are struggling to cope with the rising cost of living and who are excluded from home ownership by some of the property prices. the highest in the country.

Masseuse Xue Juan, 44, said her friend had recently returned to her small hometown in Chengdu province and opened a hotpot restaurant, and was considering joining her.

“Even food and drink are getting overpriced, the work is hard, and the standard of living has improved so much in the rest of China,” Xue said. “Maybe it’s time to go.”

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Reporting by David Kirton in Shenzhen, China Editing by John Geddie and Bill Rigby

Our standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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